Monday, February 28, 2011

Remembering the March 1st 1997 Tornado Outbreak

March is upon us and I have to think that it's going to be a wild month. I will post my thoughts on the upcoming severe weather season in the next couple of days. Stay tuned. I'm expecting to be out chasing several days this month. March 1st is the first day of meteorological spring and my daughter's birthday.

March 1st 1997 is also known as the date of one of the biggest outbreaks of tornadoes and severe weather in Arkansas history. I remember being at my daughter's 4th birthday party in Sherwood and having to take cover. Debris from the Benton/Mabelvale tornado was falling out of the sky at my house. Do you remember that day?

All in all, there were 16 tornadoes, 25 people were killed, 426 injured and an estimated 270 million dollars in property damage occurred on that day.  

Click the links below for more information on that tragic day.








Michael (ninja)

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Proposed NWS Budget Cuts Good or Bad?

Feb 20,2011

The debate about the purposed NWS budget cut for fiscal year 2011 is heating up nationwide and I thought I would chime in on the subject.

*I have the up most respect for the NWS employees (especially at Little Rock) as they have helped me many times with information that I have used on both the BUZZ and during my storm chasing adventures. I hope that I have provided them with valuable information as well with local storm reports and conditions when I am out in the field.

If you weren't aware, congress passed House Resolution 1 early Saturday morning (3:00 am) which included approx 61 billion dollars in fiscal year 2011 budget cuts. This included about 126 million dollars to the National Weather Service's 2011 budget which runs through October. It has been reported that this represents about 30% of their remaining funds for this year. If the senate passes their version of this bill, according to NWS sources several of the NWS local forecasting offices will have to be shut down in "rolling shutdowns" during the remainder of 2011. How, when and who would be involved has not been spelled out so it is hard to comment on that (at least for me). I have seen many remarks that this would or could impact severe weather warnings being issued and that important data would not be available during this period and even that peoples lives would be at risk. Are these facts or scare tactics?

I read a first hand account from Dan Koch who is a NWS meteorologist in NLR and of course he is concerned as he should be. I don't think anyone in this country wants to see anyone possibly lose their job or be layed off even for 27 days. I know I don't.

In his post (the link is provided below) he breaks it all down for us from his perspective. I encourage you to read it.

http://wxmandan.blogspot.com/2011/02/insiders-take-on-nws-budget-cuts.html

He states that the NWS budget is somewhere between 800-850 million per year of which 70% is for salaries (595 million) and the rest for operating expenses. The purposed cut for fiscal year 2011 is 126 million of the amount left in 2011 but if this was for a full year it would amount to about 15% vs the 30% that we are looking at. I don't think this matters but decided to throw it out there. It is still a big impact.

In my opinion, I have to agree with him on some points and ask for solutions on others.
First, I agree that with all the money spent by our government on useless studies and overseas spending we should look to cut there first (I am a believer in taking care of the US first). Don't get me wrong, I think there is a need for us to help other countries but in times such as these, I question my tax dollars going to help some country who can help themselves while our country falls apart (look at the roads and schools locally). So I ask is the NWS being targeted or is it simply one dept among many that are being asked to cut back?

AR Representative Tim Griffin said this morning that HR1 represented a simplified approach to turn back spending to 2008 levels as a start and that the congress failed to act last year during an election year and that is why we are seeing some what some perceive as extreme cuts.

Second, I agree that the NWS provides valuable data that we simply cannot live without anymore. We need the twice daily balloon launches, we need warnings to be issued accurately and timely. We need the new pulse radar scheduled to be deployed in the next few years. We need the research being done on how, when and why tornadoes and hurricanes form. Bottom line is:We NEED THE NWS!

Where I need help is: Is the NWS already operating on a shoestring budget? Is there any room for consolidation or other cost cutting measures that can be used to ensure that the NWS is here 5, 10, 20 years from now. I think most Americans realize that we cannot continue on the path that we are on, that we could not operate our family budgets the way the US government does and that cuts have to be made.

While not a popular subject, In my opinion it seems whenever cuts are mentioned in the public sector they are always met with " we'll have to shut down, or you'll be sorry, or people will be impacted",  to the point it makes me sick. The private sector has been enduring cutbacks over the last decade while the federal and state governments seem to continue to grow. It seems everyone wants to see cuts in spending "just not if it impacts me".

Looking at the map of all the NWS offices, I ask, can some of these offices be consolidated? How and why are they located in the cities they are in? There seems to be many more in the eastern US than the west. The state of Arkansas has 5 different NWS offices providing services while the state of Utah is covered by one. Is it the threat of severe weather in the central, eastern and southern US that requires more offices? Look at the map below and you will see all 122 NWS offices and their county warning areas. Do you think we need all 122 offices?



Obviously, if you work for the NWS the answer is yes. But I ask, has technology gotten to the point where with a few larger areas the same accuracy in daily forecasts and warnings would not suffer?
Think about it for a moment. The only center that issues hurricane watches or warnings is the Tropical Prediction Center. The only center that issues Severe Thunderstorm Watches, Tornado Watches is the Storm Prediction Center and this is for the entire nation. The local offices issue the local warnings. So could this function be consolidated to "some super offices" which would then handle multi state areas?

How about the radar? Does it run 24/7 or can they be turned off in times of fair weather? 

I am simply asking if there has to be budget cuts across the board..could there be another way?

Some of the info going around on Twitter and in the media is that people will lose their lives because warnings won't get issued. I do not buy this one bit. There are back up systems in place to account for a local NWS office being down. What if a tornado had hit the NWS office in NLR back in April 2008 and demolished the building. Are we to believe that all weather reports, forecasts, warnings, etc in Arkansas would stop. I don't think so. The NWS office in New Orleans was down for a few days following Hurricane Katrina and they had their back up office pick up the slack. Yes..it might have cause overtime or someone having to work an extra shift but it still got done.

I don't know this, but I have to believe that if there was a rolling shutdown of a local NWS office it would have to be done in such a way that the least impact to a region would take place, but without seeing the plan it's hard to comment on what impact we would see.

Dan mentioned that the NWS employees are dedicated to the public but they make a sacrifice by working odd hours and are away from their families. I agree that they are dedicated but many people work hour such as they do and even worse and that isn't any reason that they are somehow immune to budget cuts.

Dan also mentioned that he read that the United States was sending "billions of dollars" over to Egypt to help them rebuild their country after their recent revolution requires some additional information as I could find nothing to support this.

My unprofessional bottom line is this: We all might have to sacrifice in the future in both services we and benefits while we try to get a handle on this out of control spending and this includes the NWS. To say as one former NWS employee said in the comment section on the Arkansas Weather Blog " these people have families, mortgages, car payments, student loans to pay". Who doesn't. I like most Americans are seeing everything go up from insurance co pays to college tuition, food, gas, etc. Either we all bite the bullet and agree to get our country out of this mess, or we will be sorry in a few years.

If you think the NWS is a valuable service and deserves to be fully funded no matter what, then I encourage you to contact your congressperson or senator and voice your opinion.

In the meantime lets enjoy this wonderful weather of late, It appears we will need our NWS office on Thursday as severe weather may occur.

Michael Hook
Aka The WeatherNinja

Thursday, February 10, 2011

SNOWPLOSION 2011

What an awesome day yesterday was. After a fun night on the Arkansas Weather Blog Tuesday night, I was pumped for a day of snow chasing with Erich Hopkins (ChaserErich). We knew that we could drive around the LR metro and stream live video of the impending snowstorm, but there would be plenty of others doing that and we were searching for something "extreme". After all, that's what we do.

Our plan was to head southwest toward Rich Mountain (the 2nd highest peak in Arkansas) hoping for some crazy snowfall amounts. Due to the cold temperatures expected along with some serious snow expected we made sure we had plenty of winter weather gear just in case. I woke up around 4 Wednesday morning and took an early glance at the models and conditions. I was surprised to see the large snowfall totals piling up in NW Arkansas. Radar was lit up in the NW but was also looking good in Eastern Oklahoma. Erich picked me up around 4:45 and we loaded up. Heading south towards Little Rock I noticed that snowfall seemed to be picking up to the north and Eastern Oklahoma was indicating a little less than I expected.

We continued SW on I-30 turning west at the Hot Springs exit where is was just starting to snow. 10 miles west it was snowing hard and the road was turning white. Feeling pretty good we continued on. I did my morning weather update on the BUZZ. Just before Hot Springs I could see on radar that the snow was really picking up further to the north and the snowfall in Eastern Oklahoma looked like it was really falling apart. I called Todd for some information and looked at the models on my laptop. NWS Tulsa had made mention of an expected area of very heavy snow forming in Southern Oklahoma heading to the east and northeast. We knew we had to go north if we were going to pick up the "extreme" snow.

We made a turn north at Mt. Ida and headed to Mt. Magazine State Park. If we couldn't get to Rich Mountain we might as well go to the highest spot in Arkansas. I wanted to take a picture of the Arkansas Weather Blog flag (which is really a t-shirt) next to the sign that stated we were at the top of Arkansas during a snowstorm.  Heading north we were hearing about the "extreme" snow totals coming out of the NW. Our plan was to run up the mountain, snap the picture, then head northwest towards Fayetteville. That plan was quickly squashed as we found out that all highways leading north from I-40 were closed due to snowfall.

The snow between Mt. Ida and Havana had picked up considerably and we were really happy with what we were seeing. At that time, we saw the special mesoscale discussion about  heavy snow of more than one inch per hour expected in the LR area starting about noon. We knew we would miss that but knew from looking at the radar that some of that heavy snow would be heading for Mt. Magazine. We stopped at Rick's One Stop in Havana for a quick bathroom break and a snack. Rick told us we would need chains to make it to the top so we pulled into a car wash to put chains on Erich's truck. He also told us that if we left the lodge we could hike about 500 yards straight up the mountain and we would reach our goal.

Rick's One Stop in Havana Arkansas. They stayed open all day.


The chains are a little short.


We found out the chains would not fit but we decided to attempt it anyway. By now it was snowing very hard and we decided to stop and take a snow measurement using the Yakstick that we had brought with us. The Yakstick is the most accurate snow measuring device known to man. By our measurement the area had 6 inches of accumulation.


The road to Mt. Magazine.



The "Yakstick"
The snow was coming down, we were slipping and sliding, turn after turn, higher and higher, in snowy conditions that would make most people turn back. We were so proud when we saw the lodge at the top. but we made it to the top of the mountain, with no chains. We were feeling pretty good about ourselves. The credit goes to Erich for his determination and excellent driving skills (not to mention the 5 Hour Energy).

We went inside the lodge to look around and warm up. We asked how to get to the top and the two girls behind the counter told us to go back to cabin 5, park, and then follow the trail. There was a little debate about whether or not we could stop on the side of the road. Our truck would be in the way if the park dept decided to plow the road so they told us to turn into cabin 5 and park on the side.

Waterfall just outside the lodge entrance

Getting directions from the friendly staff

We loaded up and headed towards cabin 5. We found the cabin and pulled into the driveway. BIG MISTAKE as we slid, and slid, getting closer and closer to the cabin, finally stopping about  1/2" from the railing. We were streaming live so some of you may have seen that. Erich tried to back up and at that point we knew we were stuck. We were assessing the situation (and in the back of our minds thinking about what we were going to tell our wives) when a SUV pulled up on the main road and offered to tow us out. The pulled down the driveway and got stuck too. Erich said he had a couple of shovels in the truck but we only found one. He left one at the car wash in Havana so we took turns digging the SUV out and finally manged to get them back to the road. We asked them to let the lodge know we "might" need some help.

Assessing the stuck truck.

Our help got stuck!

                                                      Video of us sliding down the driveway


I started to shovel and was thinking we might have to spend the night up here. Good thing the winter rates were in affect. Erich shoveled some and then we just took turns as we had to do the whole driveway. The guy that had offered to help us and got stuck (I believe his name was Brian) came back with a snow shovel and we progressed down the driveway to the truck. Erich took off in reverse and made it halfway up, so we shoveled some more and he eventually made it back to the road. Thank goodness! We did learn that Brian was a weather geek just like us.

A park ranger came by we told him what he what we were going to do and he suggested we park at the lodge, so Erich drove back to the lodge and parked and then we took off on the trail. All this time it continued to snow. We took a quick measurement using the Yakstick and measure just below 9".

8.75 inches at the lodge.


This was supposed to be a quick 1/2 mile hike but either we lost the trail or it was a little longer because I think we walked completely around the mountain for a distance of 1 1/2 miles.





The trail to the top.



Erich Hopkins. So extreme he didn't need gloves.

WeatherNinja on the trail

Pretty snow along the trail

7 is Weather and the Arkansas Weather Blog is Extreme Weather
We finally made it though and it was worth it.


We streamed live video back to the blog from the top of the mountain as the snow continued to fall. We took our picture and then headed down the trail back to the lodge, only this time Erich suggested we head due east (he had a compass on his phone). We did and cut our trip down to about 1/8 of a mile. At the top we used the Yakstick one last time and measured 10" of snow.


The official flag of the Arkansas Weather Blog

Michael Hook aka The WeatherNinja

Erich Hopkins aka ChaserErich

The Yakstick says 10"

We planted the flag, took the picture, and headed home.   I did manage to get a picture from the top of the mountain as the clouds lifted just enough to see the valley below.

View from the top of Mt. Magazine



We went to Russellville hoping for some Whataburger or CJ's but we were out of luck as they were closed. We did see the Channel 7 truck next to I-40 and stopped for a chat with Roger Susanin who was covering the storm from that location.

Since I knew we where a couple of fast food places were on the other side of Russellville we headed east and made it just in time for some Wendys. They were about to close because of the weather but made our order. What normally takes about an hour to get back to LR took 2.5 since the interstate was completely covered with snow and ice. We saw numerous trucks in the median and were commenting on those cars and trucks that passed us at a high rate of speed that we would see them down the road. I one case that was true as a Toyota FJ5 passed us and the spun off the side near Morrilton. We stopped to see if they needed help but they said they were ok. It was still snowing on our trip down I-40 and Erich dropped me off at about 8:00pm.


This was our route for SNOWPLOSION 2011


All in all it was a fun day for us. We got our picture, everyone got their snow all is good in Arkansas.
I'm going to play in the snow today and do some sledding with my daughter. Until the next extreme weather event...enjoy the weather cause it'll change before you know it.

Michael