Monday's Severe Weather Chances

April 2nd 2011

All eyes are on the mid south as a powerful storm system and cold front come knocking on our door. Earlier in the week it appeared that the system would spawn an outbreak of severe weather including severe thunderstorms, hail, heavy rains and tornadoes. All the variables were coming into play according to the computer models. The timing was right (late afternoon frontal passage)and the chasers were getting excited.

Looking at this morning's data it appears that we will most likely have some severe weather but the timing of the frontal system is coming in much faster. In fact it appears the front may pass through the LR area on Monday morning. This would lead me to believe that late Sunday into early Monday we might see the main severe weather threat. With this threat there is still the possibility of supercells and tornadoes so we will have to watch this as nighttime are especially dangerous since so many people are sleeping.  The threat will then shift to West Tenn and Northern Mississippi by afternoon, but this could change if the frontal system slows down.

The 06z run of the GFS  has the front east of AR by afternoon

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has placed parts of Arkansas under a "SLIGHT RISK" of severe weather for Sunday (probably later in the evening through the overnight) and then a large part of the state on Monday. The main threat looks to be damaging winds at this point with the line of thunderstorms BUT a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

This is the outlook for Sunday. The outlooks shows the greatest chance in Northern Arkansas later in the evening.

This is the outlook for Monday. The greatest threat has shifted to the central and eastern part of the state.

I will monitor the situation on Sunday and decide if I will go out on Sunday night or Monday.

Looking ahead, it appears the warm weather is finally here to stay. It will cool down a bit after this next frontal passage and I would not rule out some frost in parts of the north Tuesday or Wednesday morning but as we move further into April that risk will diminish rapidly. After last week's gloomy weather, I'm ready for some heat.

I'll keep watching the situation for Monday and update as needed. I think we're looking at a more active April/May severe weather wise. Interesting that John Robinson at the LR NWS reported not a single tornado was reported in March in Arkansas. Considering our severe weather season is March/April/May that's a good thing for those who don't like it.

Take advantage of this great weekend and get out and make a memory.

Ninja

I'M BACK!

March 31st 2011

The word is out in the chaser world on a big severe weather outbreak possibility on Sunday and Monday April 3rd/4th. There is still many variables to come together but if they do we will really need to watch out over Arkansas for the first real severe weather threat of the spring.

I will have much more concerning this possible event in the next few days. In the meantime enjoy the great weather expected for the weekend. Temperatures will warm up into the 70s and even the 80s by Monday.

Check back for more information and remember you can always follow me Twitter: twitter.com/weatherninja.


Michael





March 30, 2011

It's been almost a month since I last updated. I've been busy...busy...busy but hope to update on a daily basis now.

Let me start by saying so long to this gray gloomy weather we've been having. After one more cloudy day on Thursday, we'll be back to springtime temperatures on Friday through Monday. On Monday April 4th we are going to have to watch a system coming in from the west. If the timing is right we very well could be looking at a severe weather set up especially over the eastern part of the state.

I'll have more on this tomorrow. In the meantime, look for updates daily from me.

Thanks for reading...

Michael












It's been almost a month since I last updated. I've been busy...busy...busy but hope to update on a daily basis now.

Let me start by saying so long to this gray gloomy weather we've been having. After one more cloudy day on Thursday, we'll be back to springtime temperatures on Friday through Monday. On Monday April 4th we are going to have to watch a system coming in from the west. If the timing is right we very well could be looking at a severe weather set up especially over the eastern part of the state.

I'll have more on this tomorrow. In the meantime, look for updates daily from me.

Thanks for reading...

Michael

WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF A DISASTER STRUCK YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD?

With the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake/tsunami/nuclear problems much in the news, I found a video that I think it worth watching. It's about 10 minutes of startling video of the tsunami and shows the power of raging water. I know we aren't in danger of a tsunamis effects here in Arkansas..BUT..we do have flash floods and they can be almost as violent.

I know this disaster has opened my own eyes as to having a disaster plan. What would you do if a tornado,flash flood, flood, earthquake or other natural disaster occurred where you live. How would you contact other members of your family if communications were down? How would you get food, water or medicine?

I think it's a good idea for all of us to take the time and develop a plan.


Watch the video (it is rather dramatic and very sad). I will post some links to putting a plan together at the bottom of the page.



I hope you never need to use your disaster plan, but odds are at some point you will. It never hurts to be prepared.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/prepare/family_plan.shtml
http://www.fema.gov/plan/index.shtm
http://www.redcrosslv.org/disaster/materials.html


I will have more on our warm weather coming later this week, in the meantime it looks rather cool and rainy on Monday and I would not rule out some snow in parts of Arkansas as an upper level low moves over the state Monday afternoon/night.