Monday's Severe Weather Chances

April 2nd 2011

All eyes are on the mid south as a powerful storm system and cold front come knocking on our door. Earlier in the week it appeared that the system would spawn an outbreak of severe weather including severe thunderstorms, hail, heavy rains and tornadoes. All the variables were coming into play according to the computer models. The timing was right (late afternoon frontal passage)and the chasers were getting excited.

Looking at this morning's data it appears that we will most likely have some severe weather but the timing of the frontal system is coming in much faster. In fact it appears the front may pass through the LR area on Monday morning. This would lead me to believe that late Sunday into early Monday we might see the main severe weather threat. With this threat there is still the possibility of supercells and tornadoes so we will have to watch this as nighttime are especially dangerous since so many people are sleeping.  The threat will then shift to West Tenn and Northern Mississippi by afternoon, but this could change if the frontal system slows down.

The 06z run of the GFS  has the front east of AR by afternoon

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has placed parts of Arkansas under a "SLIGHT RISK" of severe weather for Sunday (probably later in the evening through the overnight) and then a large part of the state on Monday. The main threat looks to be damaging winds at this point with the line of thunderstorms BUT a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

This is the outlook for Sunday. The outlooks shows the greatest chance in Northern Arkansas later in the evening.

This is the outlook for Monday. The greatest threat has shifted to the central and eastern part of the state.

I will monitor the situation on Sunday and decide if I will go out on Sunday night or Monday.

Looking ahead, it appears the warm weather is finally here to stay. It will cool down a bit after this next frontal passage and I would not rule out some frost in parts of the north Tuesday or Wednesday morning but as we move further into April that risk will diminish rapidly. After last week's gloomy weather, I'm ready for some heat.

I'll keep watching the situation for Monday and update as needed. I think we're looking at a more active April/May severe weather wise. Interesting that John Robinson at the LR NWS reported not a single tornado was reported in March in Arkansas. Considering our severe weather season is March/April/May that's a good thing for those who don't like it.

Take advantage of this great weekend and get out and make a memory.

Ninja