The debate about the purposed NWS budget cut for fiscal year 2011 is heating up nationwide and I thought I would chime in on the subject.
*I have the up most respect for the NWS employees (especially at Little Rock) as they have helped me many times with information that I have used on both the BUZZ and during my storm chasing adventures. I hope that I have provided them with valuable information as well with local storm reports and conditions when I am out in the field.
If you weren't aware, congress passed House Resolution 1 early Saturday morning (3:00 am) which included approx 61 billion dollars in fiscal year 2011 budget cuts. This included about 126 million dollars to the National Weather Service's 2011 budget which runs through October. It has been reported that this represents about 30% of their remaining funds for this year. If the senate passes their version of this bill, according to NWS sources several of the NWS local forecasting offices will have to be shut down in "rolling shutdowns" during the remainder of 2011. How, when and who would be involved has not been spelled out so it is hard to comment on that (at least for me). I have seen many remarks that this would or could impact severe weather warnings being issued and that important data would not be available during this period and even that peoples lives would be at risk. Are these facts or scare tactics?
I read a first hand account from Dan Koch who is a NWS meteorologist in NLR and of course he is concerned as he should be. I don't think anyone in this country wants to see anyone possibly lose their job or be layed off even for 27 days. I know I don't.
In his post (the link is provided below) he breaks it all down for us from his perspective. I encourage you to read it.
http://wxmandan.blogspot.com/2011/02/insiders-take-on-nws-budget-cuts.html
He states that the NWS budget is somewhere between 800-850 million per year of which 70% is for salaries (595 million) and the rest for operating expenses. The purposed cut for fiscal year 2011 is 126 million of the amount left in 2011 but if this was for a full year it would amount to about 15% vs the 30% that we are looking at. I don't think this matters but decided to throw it out there. It is still a big impact.
In my opinion, I have to agree with him on some points and ask for solutions on others.
First, I agree that with all the money spent by our government on useless studies and overseas spending we should look to cut there first (I am a believer in taking care of the US first). Don't get me wrong, I think there is a need for us to help other countries but in times such as these, I question my tax dollars going to help some country who can help themselves while our country falls apart (look at the roads and schools locally). So I ask is the NWS being targeted or is it simply one dept among many that are being asked to cut back?
AR Representative Tim Griffin said this morning that HR1 represented a simplified approach to turn back spending to 2008 levels as a start and that the congress failed to act last year during an election year and that is why we are seeing some what some perceive as extreme cuts.
Second, I agree that the NWS provides valuable data that we simply cannot live without anymore. We need the twice daily balloon launches, we need warnings to be issued accurately and timely. We need the new pulse radar scheduled to be deployed in the next few years. We need the research being done on how, when and why tornadoes and hurricanes form. Bottom line is:We NEED THE NWS!
Where I need help is: Is the NWS already operating on a shoestring budget? Is there any room for consolidation or other cost cutting measures that can be used to ensure that the NWS is here 5, 10, 20 years from now. I think most Americans realize that we cannot continue on the path that we are on, that we could not operate our family budgets the way the US government does and that cuts have to be made.
While not a popular subject, In my opinion it seems whenever cuts are mentioned in the public sector they are always met with " we'll have to shut down, or you'll be sorry, or people will be impacted", to the point it makes me sick. The private sector has been enduring cutbacks over the last decade while the federal and state governments seem to continue to grow. It seems everyone wants to see cuts in spending "just not if it impacts me".
Looking at the map of all the NWS offices, I ask, can some of these offices be consolidated? How and why are they located in the cities they are in? There seems to be many more in the eastern US than the west. The state of Arkansas has 5 different NWS offices providing services while the state of Utah is covered by one. Is it the threat of severe weather in the central, eastern and southern US that requires more offices? Look at the map below and you will see all 122 NWS offices and their county warning areas. Do you think we need all 122 offices?
Obviously, if you work for the NWS the answer is yes. But I ask, has technology gotten to the point where with a few larger areas the same accuracy in daily forecasts and warnings would not suffer?
Think about it for a moment. The only center that issues hurricane watches or warnings is the Tropical Prediction Center. The only center that issues Severe Thunderstorm Watches, Tornado Watches is the Storm Prediction Center and this is for the entire nation. The local offices issue the local warnings. So could this function be consolidated to "some super offices" which would then handle multi state areas?
How about the radar? Does it run 24/7 or can they be turned off in times of fair weather?
I am simply asking if there has to be budget cuts across the board..could there be another way?
Some of the info going around on Twitter and in the media is that people will lose their lives because warnings won't get issued. I do not buy this one bit. There are back up systems in place to account for a local NWS office being down. What if a tornado had hit the NWS office in NLR back in April 2008 and demolished the building. Are we to believe that all weather reports, forecasts, warnings, etc in Arkansas would stop. I don't think so. The NWS office in New Orleans was down for a few days following Hurricane Katrina and they had their back up office pick up the slack. Yes..it might have cause overtime or someone having to work an extra shift but it still got done.
I don't know this, but I have to believe that if there was a rolling shutdown of a local NWS office it would have to be done in such a way that the least impact to a region would take place, but without seeing the plan it's hard to comment on what impact we would see.
Dan mentioned that the NWS employees are dedicated to the public but they make a sacrifice by working odd hours and are away from their families. I agree that they are dedicated but many people work hour such as they do and even worse and that isn't any reason that they are somehow immune to budget cuts.
Dan also mentioned that he read that the United States was sending "billions of dollars" over to Egypt to help them rebuild their country after their recent revolution requires some additional information as I could find nothing to support this.
My unprofessional bottom line is this: We all might have to sacrifice in the future in both services we and benefits while we try to get a handle on this out of control spending and this includes the NWS. To say as one former NWS employee said in the comment section on the Arkansas Weather Blog " these people have families, mortgages, car payments, student loans to pay". Who doesn't. I like most Americans are seeing everything go up from insurance co pays to college tuition, food, gas, etc. Either we all bite the bullet and agree to get our country out of this mess, or we will be sorry in a few years.
If you think the NWS is a valuable service and deserves to be fully funded no matter what, then I encourage you to contact your congressperson or senator and voice your opinion.
In the meantime lets enjoy this wonderful weather of late, It appears we will need our NWS office on Thursday as severe weather may occur.
Michael Hook
Aka The WeatherNinja
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